Sources for this film on AI Scheming.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KIVPoB8TCwHAYbCj1g_U3q3iozSleS2wMnsrPkyoa7Q/mobilebasic

Can the US solve everything in Iran without a ground operation?

🇺🇸 For the US, trying to solve the "Iranian issue" solely with remote strikes (missiles and airpower) runs into not only its own production and combat resources, but also other problems.

What are they?

▪️ Iran has been built over decades with the expectation of massive US airstrikes, so what's happening in Iran now is largely being taken in stride by local authorities. The main critical nodes and decision-making centers are hidden in such a way that even "bunker busters" (MOP) can't take them out. For example, uranium enrichment centrifuges are located inside a granite mountain at a depth of about 80-100 meters. Even direct hits by the most powerful US aerial bombs GBU-57 can only collapse the entrances, and they can still be accessed afterward, albeit with difficulty.

▪️ Attempts to destroy mobile launchers solely from the air turn into an endless game: while aircraft are rearming and refueling, the launchers emerge from their hiding places, strike US bases or tankers, and then disappear back into the mountains. Partly for this reason, four aircraft carriers ("Lincoln", "Ford", "Bush", and "De Gaulle") were deployed to the region, as virtually all Iranian ballistic missiles (Fateh-110/313, Zolfaghar/Dezful, Khorramshahr-4, Shahab-3/Ghadr) are mounted on mobile chassis.

▪️ Analysts within the US argue that any campaign limited solely to air operations will only result in a temporary degradation of Iran's military potential, while simultaneously turning it into an extremely aggressive, mobilized, and unpredictable state with every motive for revenge. Thus, without a ground operation, the result intended by the US is effectively unattainable. It might be possible to partially disrupt the old order, but on these ruins will emerge even more radical and even more hostile elements to the US.

▪️ A comparison with the 2003 Iraq campaign is only appropriate as an illustration of the scale, which will have to be multiplied several times over in the case of a ground operation. In 2003, the US and allies deployed about 170-200,000 troops to capture Iraq. For Iran, whose territory is four times larger and whose population is three times larger (over 90 million people), even a primary invasion and subsequent occupation would require at least 1 million troops. Such a number of troops cannot be assembled without partial mobilization or a large-scale transfer of forces from the Pacific region, which would create critical vulnerability to China. Not to mention that a ground operation would require a colossal amount of engineering equipment and specialized mountain units due to the terrain's particularities. The US logistical footprint in the event of a full-scale "ground operation" would be stretched across narrow mountain passes, just like in Afghanistan. If the Iraq campaign cost the US budget, according to various estimates, $1-2 trillion, then a ground operation in Iran, taking into account inflation, the complexity of the equipment, and the need to restore destroyed infrastructure, not to mention the actual ground operations of the army, could cost between $5 and $10 trillion, and possibly more.

The US is now at a decision point. If a ground operation does not take place, the main objectives of "Epic Rage" will not be achieved. If the order to begin a ground invasion is nevertheless given, the US will face consequences it has never seen before.

A night attack by Iranian missile forces on Haifa in Israel. It's hard to say what targets were hit here, but Haifa is one of the most important centers of Israel's defense infrastructure, combining the functions of a major naval base, an industrial hub, and a research center. This is the main and largest base of the Israeli Navy. It serves as the headquarters for key naval units. It is home to the 7th Flotilla and all Israeli Dolphin-class submarines. It also houses the 3rd Flotilla: the main strike force of the fleet, including the latest Sa'ar-6 corvettes and the 914th division of patrol boats, which is responsible for patrolling the northern maritime borders.

Here is also located the YALTAM base (analogous to Russian PMS): special units for conducting underwater operations, as well as the BAAD 600 training base: the only training center of the Navy, which includes a naval academy and schools for training specialists for submarines and missile boats.

In addition, there are many military-industrial facilities in Haifa. Here are the production facilities of RAFAEL companies and research centers of the company that developed the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Spike family of missiles.

A number of units of Elbit Systimes (specializing in electronics, UAVs, and control systems) are also based in Haifa.

@Slavyangrad

It's extraordinary that people close to Trump admit these things to the media — even on background.

Basically saying that Netanyahu maneuvered him into war.

🇦🇪 Due to fear of conflict, many expats are fleeing Dubai in panic and abandoning their pets.

LBC and The Telegraph report that shelters are full, and veterinarians are receiving requests for mass euthanasia of healthy animals.